SpaceX Unlock Update: August 20, 2026
As you read this, another 319 million SpaceX shares are unlocking.
It's the second release since the company went public in June, 15 miles from my office, in the largest IPO in stock market history. Roughly 4,400 employees became millionaires on paper that day. Two weeks ago, the first of that money stopped being paper.
I've been selling Westside real estate for twenty years and I've never seen a wealth event like this one. So here's where that money is actually going, and on what schedule.
What Happened on August 6
The question I keep seeing is whether a Westside seller should wait for this money to show up. That question assumes it arrives all at once. It doesn't, it arrives on a schedule, and that schedule started two weeks ago.
Here's the part that surprised almost everyone. On August 6, roughly 911 million shares came unlocked, worth about $105 billion. Wall Street braced for a selloff. It didn't happen. Trading volume ran about three and a half times normal, and the stock went up, closing 6.14% higher.
Forbes had the sharpest read on why. It wasn't that nobody wanted to sell… it's that most of those shares hadn't physically reached anyone in a position to sell them yet.
The stock itself has been violent. It hit $225.64 in June, bottomed at $108.27 on August 5 after a rough first earnings report, and has since climbed back above its $135 IPO price.
The Full Unlock Calendar
SpaceX built a tiered, rolling lockup instead of a standard one. Here's the whole schedule:
Final employee lockup expires. Remainder Jun 12, 2027. Musk's shares unlock~6B total.
September 9 through October 24 is the heaviest stretch, roughly 1.3 billion shares across four dates in seven weeks.
The Los Angeles Times reported the most significant buying wave isn't expected until early next year, once December clears. In the meantime, some agents and bankers are reportedly building workarounds so buyers can borrow against gains they haven't realized yet.
A note for December: it gets the headlines because it's the 180-day mark, but the September and October tranches release most of the volume first. If you're waiting for December as your signal, you'll be arriving after the money, not before.
Where This Money Actually Buys
This is a South Bay price event with a Westside tail. It is not a Westside price event.
New money buys the commute before it buys the view. The LA Times reported SpaceX's highest employee concentration is still in Hawthorne, 7,660 people, south of the 105. Those engineers are buying where they can be at their desk in twelve minutes: Manhattan Beach, Hermosa, Redondo, El Segundo.
It's already happening. The Ankler reported a former SpaceX employee just paid $14 million for a 7,400-square-foot house in Hermosa Beach, seven bedrooms, home theater, pool. A record for that market. Not a forecast. A closed sale.
For scale on why that matters: Paul Habibi, an economist at UCLA Anderson, told the LA Times that Manhattan Beach has roughly 11,000 housing units total. You don't need a thousand new buyers to move a market that size. You need forty.
Why the Snap Comparison Doesn't Work
Everyone keeps reaching for Snap's 2017 IPO as the precedent. Habibi's point, and I agree, is that it's the wrong shape. Snap's workforce already lived on the Westside. Venice and Santa Monica felt that IPO within months because the buyers were walking to work down Abbot Kinney. That money didn't have to travel.
This money has to travel. And money that travels moves slower.
Where the Westside Participates
Two places, and only two.
The executive tier. The New York Post reported a deal in progress where the buyer is a longtime SpaceX employee stepping up from a modest Westside house to something in the $13 million range in Brentwood. That's the shape of it, not a flood, but one buyer making one very large move.
The spillover. The Ankler put the range that gets hit hardest at $2 million to $6 million, with real activity under $10 million. On the Westside, that lands in Mar Vista, Marina del Rey, Playa, and East Venice.
What This Means if You Own Here
If you're selling on the Westside this fall, be listed and seasoned into those unlock windows rather than chasing them afterward. You have roughly three weeks before the September tranches begin. That's your prep runway for photos, staging, and pricing conversations.
Everyone who waits for proof will list at the same moment as everyone else who waited for proof.
And do not raise your ask on a headline. The New York Post already named this, the SpaceX premium, and now that the stock has recovered, expect more of it, not less. Pricing on a story instead of a comp is how a home sits ninety days and then sells for less than it would have in week one.
The Honest Answer
This is the biggest influx I've seen come at Los Angeles real estate in twenty years. It's arriving in pieces, over months, and the biggest piece is next year.
Anybody telling you they know how this ends is selling you something.
Four more unlock dates before December. If you want to know how your home is positioned against that calendar, I'm happy to talk it through, call or text me anytime at 310-853-2643.
Frequently asked questions
When do SpaceX shares unlock? The lockup is tiered and rolling. Roughly 911 million shares released August 6, 2026, followed by 319 million on August 20. Four more releases follow: September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24. The final employee lockup expires December 8, 2026, and Musk's own shares remain restricted until June 12, 2027.
Does the SpaceX IPO increase Los Angeles home prices? Not uniformly, and not immediately. The earliest pressure lands in the South Bay, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach, El Segundo, because that's where SpaceX employees commute. Westside neighborhoods participate second, through the executive tier and spillover demand.
Which LA neighborhoods are SpaceX millionaires buying in? Manhattan Beach, Hermosa, Redondo, El Segundo and Palos Verdes first. Brentwood, Pacific Palisades and Santa Monica for the executive tier. Mar Vista, Marina del Rey, Playa Vista and East Venice for spillover demand.
Should I wait to sell my Westside home until the SpaceX money arrives? Waiting for confirmation means listing alongside everyone else who waited. Preparing now for an October–November market positions you ahead of the heaviest unlock tranches rather than behind them.
What is the "SpaceX premium"? A term for sellers raising their asking price based on IPO headlines rather than closed comparable sales. It typically results in longer days on market and a lower final sale price
About Paul Salazar
Paul Salazar leads Paul Salazar Group at Compass, serving the Westside of Los Angeles, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, Mar Vista, and Venice. With 20+ years of experience and over $800 million in career residential sales, Paul holds the Mar Vista all-time residential sales record at $10 million.
