Mortgage Rates, Inflation & Oil: What’s Happening to Westside LA Real Estate Right Now
I don't sell mortgages. I sell homes. But every buyer and seller I talk to this month is asking some version of the same question: are rates going to get worse before they get better? So let's go through what actually happened in the market last week, and what it means if you're buying, selling, or just sitting on a home in Mar Vista, Venice, Marina del Rey, Santa Monica, Brentwood, or the Palisades right now.
Westside LA Mortgage Rates This Week, Plainly
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week ending September 10, up from 6.71% the week before and 6.35% a year ago (Freddie Mac PMMS). That's the benchmark number, not what you'll be quoted, jumbo buyers on the Westside are typically pricing a bit off that depending on loan size and down payment. Then Friday hit, and daily pricing jumped again: the 30-year fixed rose 19 basis points to 6.83% as crude oil crossed $100 a barrel, reviving inflation fears, and a fresh Producer Price Index report showing persistent cost increases made a near-term Fed rate cut increasingly unlikely.
What Actually Moved Mortgage Rates
Oil is the headline. U.S.-Iran tensions pushed crude above $100 a barrel, and that number matters beyond the gas pump, it's an inflation input, and inflation is the thing keeping rates from coming down. Bond investors read higher oil as "prices are going to run hotter for longer," and mortgage rates track the bond market, not the Fed funds rate directly. That distinction matters: the Fed doesn't set your mortgage rate. The 10-year Treasury does, more or less, and the 10-year moves on inflation expectations.
Which brings us to Wednesday. The Fed meets September 15-16, and after a hot Consumer Price Index print and rising energy costs tied to the Iran conflict, more economists are now penciling in a rate hike rather than a hold, a shift from where the conversation was just a few weeks ago. (J.P. Morgan Wealth Management) A hike sounds like bad news for rates, but it isn't necessarily, if the bond market believes the Fed is serious about getting inflation under control, longer-term rates can actually ease. Short-term and long-term rates don't always move together, and this is one of those weeks where they might not.
On the ground, here's what I'm seeing and hearing from clients rather than a spreadsheet: buyers haven't disappeared, they've gotten selective. Purchase activity has held up better than the headlines suggest, but it's concentrated on the right listings, priced correctly, shown well, positioned with some flexibility from the seller. The listings sitting are the ones still priced for a market that existed eighteen months ago.
What This Means If You're Selling on the Westside
Aspirational pricing is getting more expensive to hold onto. Every week a Westside listing sits at the wrong number, you're not just losing time, you're losing the buyers who were motivated when you launched. Price it to the current rate environment, not the one you wish we were in, and negotiate on terms, closing timeline, a rate buydown credit, repairs, before you negotiate on price. That's usually the faster path to your number, not the slower one.
What This Means If You're Buying on the Westside
Don't wait for a number that may not show up this year. What actually moves your payment more than a quarter point on the rate is what you negotiate on the purchase, a seller credit toward buying down your rate, a price reduction on a home that's been sitting, or both. That's real money on the table right now in a market where sellers are more willing to talk than they were a year ago.
What This Means If You Already Own on the Westside
If you bought in the last two years, you're not refinancing into this. If you're on an ARM approaching reset, now's the time to talk to your lender about your options before the reset date.
FAQ
Are mortgage rates going up or down right now? They ticked up in the first half of September. Freddie Mac's weekly average moved to 6.76%, and daily pricing spiked further on Friday to 6.83% after oil crossed $100 a barrel and a hot inflation report came out. The direction this week has been up, driven by oil prices and inflation data, not by anything happening at the Fed yet.
Does a Fed rate hike mean mortgage rates go up too? Not automatically. The Fed sets short-term rates. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury and investors' inflation expectations. A Fed hike aimed at credibly fighting inflation can actually help long-term rates over time, even though it sounds like the opposite.
Should I wait to buy until rates come down? That depends on your timeline and what you can negotiate today, not on guessing correctly. If a seller will negotiate on price or offer a rate buydown credit, that's often worth more than waiting on a rate move that isn't guaranteed to happen this year.
How does oil crossing $100 a barrel affect home prices? Indirectly, through inflation and rates. Higher oil raises costs across the economy, which keeps inflation elevated, which keeps mortgage rates from easing. It doesn't directly change home values on the Westside, but it does change what buyers can afford to borrow.
Lets Talk!
The rate isn't the only number that matters. If you're buying or selling on the Westside right now, let's map out what you can actually negotiate, reach out to the Paul Salazar Group at 310-853-2643 or info@paulsalazargroup.com.
