The Short Answer
Prop 13 is not on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and nothing on it changes your property tax rate. What is on it: a City of Los Angeles measure that would exempt Palisades fire sales from Measure ULA, a statewide loan program for new homes, and two measures that decide how California taxes its highest earners and its billionaires. Voters will see 14 statewide propositions this year (California Secretary of State).
I want to start with a story, because it explains why a tax line on a ballot can move a whole market. In the weeks before Measure ULA took effect on April 1, 2023, I watched Westside sellers race the calendar. ULA started at 4% on sales over $5 million and 5.5% at $10 million and up (Palisadian-Post). We saw a lot of sales close in and around those 2 numbers, within about 10% either way, because sellers knew that if escrow closed after the deadline they would pay a huge tax.
The data shows how sharp that cliff was. In March 2023 there were 126 homes and condos listed over $5 million in the city, and in April there were 2. In the 12 months after ULA started, single-family sales of $5 million or more in LA fell about 68%, from 366 to 166 (Spectrum News). When a ballot measure puts a price on a closing date, people plan around it. That is the lens I'd use for everything below.
Would Prop TE exempt Palisades fire sales from Measure ULA?
Yes, if it passes, but only for a narrow group of owners. City of Los Angeles Proposition TE would give a one-time exemption from ULA to residential properties damaged or destroyed in the Palisades Fire and sold between January 7, 2025 and January 6, 2030 (LA City Clerk voter pamphlet).
Here is who qualifies under the measure's text:
The property is residential and was damaged or destroyed by the fire, verified by the Department of Building and Safety.
The seller owned it on January 7, 2025, the day the fire began.
The property hasn't already used the exemption once.
Owners who already paid ULA on a qualifying sale can claim a refund.
That last point matters. A lot owner who sold this spring and paid the tax isn't out of luck if TE passes. The city estimates the exemption would cost the ULA fund between $35 million and $66 million through January 2030 (LA City Clerk voter pamphlet).
The money is real. ULA thresholds are now $5.4 million for the 4% tier and $10.9 million for the 5.5% tier, adjusted each year for inflation. The tax applies to the full price, so a $6 million lot sale owes $240,000 and a $12 million home owes $660,000 on top of the regular city and county transfer taxes.
This is where my 2023 story comes back. The same logic applies to Palisades sellers near $5.4 million today: the November result decides whether the threshold still matters for them. If TE fails, pricing just under a threshold stays a real strategy. If it passes, qualifying owners get a 5-year window where that cliff disappears, which is long enough to sell well instead of fast. ULA still applies everywhere else in the city, including Mar Vista, Venice and Brentwood.
Will Prop 37's new-construction loans change the Westside market?
Probably not much, and the reason is price. Prop 37 would let the California Housing Finance Agency issue up to $25 billion in bonds to fund fixed-rate loans covering up to 17% of the price of a newly built home (California Secretary of State voter guide). Buyers must live in the home, be California residents, meet income limits and put at least 3% down, and the home has to be priced below about $1.5 million. Households can earn up to 200% of the area median income.
From working with developer clients, I don't think it will have a big effect here. New construction homes on the Westside start in the high $3 millions to low $4 millions at the lowest price point, and my developer clients are building homes worth $4 million to $20 million. A loan program capped well below that won't reach those buyers.
Where it could help is the lower end of new construction: townhomes and small-lot subdivision homes in areas where prices sit under the cap. The League of Women Voters also notes the measure includes changes to construction-defect rules that could make it harder for homeowners to pursue claims against builders, which is worth reading closely if you build or buy new (CaVotes).
What do Props 3, 40 and 42 mean for high earners?
Three of the measures are about taxing income and wealth, and they matter on the Westside because they shape who stays and who sells.
Prop 3 would make permanent the higher state income tax rates voters first approved in 2012, which are otherwise set to expire in 2031 (Legislative Analyst's Office). It applies to individuals earning more than $371,000 or couples earning more than $743,000 (CalMatters).
Prop 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires who were California residents on January 1, 2026.
Prop 42 would ban new state taxes on owning personal property such as investment accounts and business interests, and it would cancel Prop 40 if it gets more votes, even if both pass (CalMatters). Real estate is not part of it.
When high-earning clients bring up leaving California over taxes, a lot of them complain that they're going to leave and never actually do. But a good number are leaving, and they're frustrated. The ones who go are usually the ones not tied to LA for a specific reason.
So the question I ask is simple: what's tying you to LA? Family, close friends, your kids, your job. If none of those apply, and a lot of people here don't have close family nearby, or their work is remote, or they can get a job transfer, then they're leaving. They're going to Florida, Texas and other states where taxes aren't as heavy. So yes, we are seeing people leave California because of taxes, but not all of them.
For a seller, that matters in 2 ways. Some of the listings you compete with come from owners who have already made that decision, and some of your buyers are weighing the same question before they commit to a Westside price.
What else on the ballot affects homeowners?
A few more measures touch housing and taxes, mostly over the long run rather than at your next closing.
| Measure | What it does | Who it touches |
|---|---|---|
| Prop 1 Statewide |
Authorizes $11.25 billion in housing bonds: $10 billion for affordable housing and homeownership programs and $1.25 billion for veterans' home loans . | Affordable housing and first-time buyers statewide |
| Prop 43 Statewide |
Raises the vote needed to pass citizen-proposed local special taxes from a majority to two-thirds, starting January 1, 2027 . | Future local taxes; ULA and existing taxes stay in place |
| Prop 45 Statewide |
Sets deadlines for environmental review and lawsuits on housing, water, energy and other "essential" projects under CEQA . | Developers and larger housing projects |
| Measure ES Santa Monica |
A $495 parcel tax per parcel, adjusted for inflation, to fund Santa Monica public schools, with exemptions for qualifying seniors . | Every Santa Monica property owner |
| Measure VV Santa Monica |
Extends eviction protections to tenants renting single-family homes and condos, and requires an owner moving in to live there at least 2 years . | Santa Monica owners who rent out a house or condo |
What should Westside homeowners do before and after November 3?
Most owners don't need to do anything differently this week. A few should pay close attention to the results.
Palisades owners who held title on January 7, 2025: if your sale could clear $5.4 million, build the Prop TE result into your timing. If it passes and you already paid ULA on a qualifying sale, ask about the refund.
Sellers anywhere else in the City of LA near $5.4 million or $10.9 million: ULA stays in place after this ballot, so pricing around those thresholds is still part of the conversation, just as it was in 2023.
Developers: Prop 37 won't reach buyers at Westside new-construction price points. Prop 45 is the one to watch if you're working on larger projects.
Santa Monica owners: check Measures ES and VV, since both apply to you directly.
Results usually take time to finalize. The Secretary of State can take up to 38 days after election night to certify statewide results.
FAQ
Is Prop 13 on the November 2026 ballot?
No. Prop 13 is not on the ballot, and none of the 14 statewide measures change the 1% base property tax rate or how your assessed value grows.
What is Proposition TE in Los Angeles?
Prop TE is a City of Los Angeles measure that would exempt sales of homes damaged or destroyed in the Palisades Fire from Measure ULA. It applies to owners who held title on January 7, 2025 and sell by January 6, 2030, and it allows refunds for ULA already paid.
Is Measure ULA going away after the November 2026 election?
No. ULA stays in place across the City of Los Angeles. For sales closing after June 30, 2026, it is 4% on sales above $5.4 million and 5.5% on sales of $10.9 million or more, charged on the full price.
Does Prop 37 help buyers of Westside new construction?
Not at most Westside price points. Prop 37 loans only apply to newly built homes priced below about $1.5 million, while Westside new construction typically starts in the high $3 millions.
Does Prop 3 raise income taxes in California?
Prop 3 keeps the current higher rates on individuals earning over $371,000 and couples earning over $743,000 instead of letting them expire in 2031. It does not add new rates.
Are Santa Monica homeowners voting on a new property tax?
Yes. Measure ES would add a $495 annual parcel tax, adjusted for inflation, to fund Santa Monica public schools, with exemptions for qualifying seniors.
Talk to the Paul Salazar Group
If you're thinking about selling and your price sits near a ULA threshold, or you own in the Palisades and want to know how Prop TE changes your timing, we'll walk through the numbers for your property. Call or text 310-853-2643 or email info@paulsalazargroup.com.
Paul Salazar, Paul Salazar Group at Compass | DRE #01763227. This article is for general information only and is not legal, tax or financial advice. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
