Every season, the Boys of Brentwood pulls the Brentwood single-family numbers and put the whole Brentwood real estate market on one page. This fall the story is clear. Buyers are patient, supply is at a 15-year high, and there is a wildcard coming in December that could change the top of the market quickly. The full report is below, followed by what it means if you own in Brentwood or are thinking about buying here.
Patient buyers. Record supply. A December wildcard.
Line = 6 months, where a buyer's market starts. Under $5M is still tight. Speed still pays: 2026 sales within 30 days got 100% of original list; 120+ days got 84%.
Under $5M, price right on day one and you control the outcome. Over $5M, you face ~10 months of supply, so condition and price decide it. Near $5.4M, plan around Measure ULA (4% above $5.4M): since 2024, 60 sales closed just under the line vs. 22 just over.
The $5M+ tier is the best negotiating window in years, and it may narrow in Q1. Under $3M, expect competition. On the Nov 3 ballot: a Palisades ULA exemption, Props 1, 37 and 45, and the governor's race. Some buyers will wait for results.
How is the Brentwood real estate market doing in Fall 2026?
The Brentwood market has slowed in sales but held its value. From January 1 to October 21, 2026, 179 single-family homes sold in Brentwood, which is 19% fewer than the same stretch of 2025. Total sold volume came in at $1.12B, down 22%. The median home took 22 days to sell, 4 days longer than last year, and sellers received 95.2% of their original list price, down 2.7 points.
The number that matters most held steady. The median price per square foot is $1,358, only 2% below last year and 35% above where it was in 2019. Buyers are negotiating harder, but values are holding.
Is Brentwood a buyer’s market right now?
Yes, by the standard measure Brentwood has moved into buyer’s territory. Brentwood now has 6.6 months of supply, the highest reading in the 15 years of data we track. That figure is how long it would take to sell every home on the market at today’s pace. Under 4 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 is balanced, and anything over 6 favors buyers.
Are Brentwood home prices different above and below $5M?
Yes, Brentwood is really two markets split at about $5M. Homes under $3M have 3.1 months of supply and homes between $3M and $5M have 4.1, so that part of the market is still tight. Above $5M it is a different picture, with 9.9 months between $5M and $10M and 10.2 months above $10M.
Timing still makes a real difference. Homes that sold within 30 days in 2026 received 100% of their original list price, while homes that sat for 120 days or more received 84%.
How could the SpaceX IPO affect Brentwood home prices?
The SpaceX IPO could add a wave of new buyers at the top of the Brentwood market starting in December. The IPO in June created more than 4,000 new millionaires, and roughly 400 of them are worth $100M or more on paper. The final lockup on employee shares expires around December 8, which is when many of them can actually sell (Premier Alternatives). Brentwood closes about 3 sales a month over $10M, so even 10 new buyers in that range would equal a full quarter of top-end demand.
What is helping and hurting the Brentwood market?
Low inventory and Palisades demand are helping, while higher rates and carrying costs are holding buyers back. On the positive side, new listings are down 28% this year, about 1,850 Palisades rebuilds have been filed, and many Palisades owners are selling their lots now that land prices have steadied and buying nearby. Families who need to stay close to schools and work keep looking at Brentwood first.
The pressure comes from financing and carrying costs. The 30-year fixed rate is back above 7% after touching 5.90% in February. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, its first hike since 2023 (Admiral Markets), and September CPI came in at 3.7% (Securities.io). California gas is averaging $6.39, and California FAIR Plan rates went up an average of 29.1% starting October 15 (KQED).
Should I sell my Brentwood home now?
It depends on your price point, and under $5M sellers still have the advantage. Under $5M, the seller who prices correctly on day one still controls the outcome. Over $5M, there are about 10 months of supply, so condition and price decide whether a home sells. If your home is near $5.4M, plan around Measure ULA, the city transfer tax of 4% on sales above that line (Haute Living). Since 2024, 60 Brentwood sales closed just under the threshold compared with 22 just over it.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Brentwood?
For buyers above $5M, this is the best negotiating window Brentwood has seen in years. That window may narrow in the first quarter if new money arrives. Under $3M, expect competition. The November 3 ballot also includes a Palisades ULA exemption, Props 1, 37 and 45, and the governor’s race, and some buyers will wait for those results before they act.
Straight from the Boys
Buyers are patient at every price point, and above $5M almost every one asks if there is room in the number before writing an offer. Developers are still bidding multiples on land. Every indicator points toward a buyer’s market, so we are watching pricing closely. Brentwood has not had a true down market in almost 20 years. COVID could have been one, but federal stimulus and near-zero rates kept values climbing. Are we due for a correction?
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median price per square foot in Brentwood in 2026?
The median sold price per square foot for Brentwood single-family homes is $1,358 for January 1 to October 21, 2026. That is 2% below the same period in 2025 and 35% above 2019.
How many homes have sold in Brentwood in 2026?
179 single-family homes sold in Brentwood from January 1 to October 21, 2026, down 19% from the same period in 2025, for a total sold volume of $1.12B.
How long does it take to sell a home in Brentwood?
The median Brentwood home sold in 22 days in 2026, 4 days longer than in 2025. Homes that sold within 30 days received 100% of their original list price, while homes on the market 120 days or more received 84%.
What does months of supply mean in real estate?
Months of supply is how long it would take to sell every home currently for sale at the current pace of sales. Under 4 months favors sellers, 4 to 6 months is balanced, and over 6 months favors buyers. Brentwood is at 6.6 months as of October 2026.
Does Measure ULA apply to Brentwood home sales?
Yes. Brentwood is in the City of Los Angeles, so Measure ULA applies. It adds a 4% transfer tax on residential sales above about $5.4M, and a higher rate on the most expensive sales (Haute Living).
Will Brentwood home prices drop in 2027?
No one can say for certain. Supply is at a 15-year high, which usually puts pressure on prices, but price per square foot has held within 2% of last year. New buyers from the SpaceX lockup expiring in December and continued Palisades demand could support the top of the market. Projections are opinion.
Talk to the Boys of Brentwood
If you are thinking about selling, buying, or just want to know what your home is worth in this market, we are happy to walk you through the numbers for your street.
